FX Island

Those trading in the foreign-exchange market (forex) rely on the same two basic forms of analysis that are used in the stock market: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The uses of technical analysis in forex are much the same: price is assumed to reflect all news, and the charts are the objects of analysis. But unlike companies, countries have no balance sheets, so how can fundamental analysis be conducted on a currency?

Since fundamental analysis is about looking at the intrinsic value of an investment, its application in forex entails looking at the economic conditions that affect the valuation of a nation’s currency. Here we look at some of the major fundamental factors that play a role in the movement of a currency. more…

LONDON (AP) — The effect of the weak dollar is again pushing oil prices higher in the face of little demand for energy and huge surpluses of crude.

On Friday, the dollar again fell against major currencies.

Since March, the dollar index, which weighs the U.S. currency against a basket of foreign currencies like the euro, the Japanese yen, the pound and the Swiss franc, has fallen nearly 12 percent. In that same period, crude has jumped 81 percent.

The widening gap between the value of a dollar and that of a barrel of oil shows just how much oil-based index funds have come to affect the prices that consumers pay for energy.

Benchmark crude for October delivery rose 81 cents to $73.30 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil prices earlier this week hit $75, a high for the year. more…

• Euro setbacks accelerate after hourly double top triggers
• Dollar/Yen pressing back to highs but expected to be well offered above 95.00
• Cable still attempting to carve right shoulder of major H&S top
• Dollar/Swiss basing structure starting to take form of potential double bottom

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Many of the dollar-denominated majors have developed congestive patterns over the past six to eight weeks. This is no doubt a product largely derived from the US dollar itself; but it is further a situation that is mirrored in most currency pairs that have a tangible link to risk appetite.

7-17-09Range-01-EURUSD

Why Would EURUSD Hold a Range?

• Levels to Watch:

-Range Top:       1.4165 (Trend, Fib, Range High)

-Range Bottom: 1.3750 (Pivot, Fibs)

• Underlying fundamental and scheduled event risk is significant for EURUSD. Like nearly every other currency pair in the market, this most liquid cross will no doubt take its cue from shifts in risk appetite through earnings or any financial implosions should it catalyze fear or greed among speculators. However, aside from this unforeseeable risk, there is still plenty of data on tap; but little of it guarantees volatility. The euro will mark hold the bulk of the risk.

• Similar to patterns seen with a few of the other majors (USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD), EURUSD has produced a clear and consistent range formation since the beginning of June. This sideways price action follows a medium-term bullish bias, but resistance has a larger trendline as well as a major 50% Fib and a series of daily highs.

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You don’t have to be a daily trader to take advantage of the forex market – every time you travel overseas and exchange your money into a foreign currency, you are participating in the foreign exchange (forex) market. According to the 2007 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivative Market Activity conducted by the Bank for International Settlements, the forex market generated $3.2 trillion dollars worth of transactions each day. This makes the forex market the quiet giant of finance, dwarfing over all other capital markets in its world.

Despite this market’s overwhelming size, when it comes to trading currencies, the concepts are simple. Let’s take a look at some of the basic concepts that all forex investors need to understand.

Eight Majors
Unlike the stock market, where investors have thousands of stocks to choose from, in the currency market, you only need to follow eight major economies and then determine which will provide the best undervalued or overvalued opportunities. These following eight countries make up the majority of trade in the currency market:

1. United States
2. Eurozone (the ones to watch are Germany, France, Italy and Spain)
3. Japan
4. United Kingdom
5. Switzerland
6. Canada
7. Australia
8. New Zealand

These economies have the largest and most sophisticated financial markets in the world. By strictly focusing on these eight countries, we can take advantage of earning interest income on the most credit worthy and liquid instruments in the financial markets. more…

WASHINGTON – The Treasury Department has approved 10 of the nation’s largest banks to repay $68 billion in government bailout money.

The department on Tuesday said the banks, which were not named, will be allowed to repay the money they received from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program created by Congress last October at the height of the financial crisis.

The banks have been eager to get out of the program to escape government restrictions such as caps on executive compensation.

Among the banks that last month passed government “stress tests” and confirmed that they received permission to repay the bailout funds were: JPMorgan Chase & Co., American Express Co., U.S. Bancorp, Capital One Financial Corp., Bank of New York Mellon Corp. and BB&T Corp. more…

Lehman Brothers Holdings

Rank: 1
Date of bankruptcy filing: 09/15/08
Assets: $691 billion

One of the biggest calamities of the current recession is the fall of the once highly regarded (and onetime fourth-largest) Wall Street investment firm, which was forced to file for bankruptcy protection last September, the largest corporate filing in the history of U.S. bankruptcy court. As a result, the company’s North American investment banking and trading businesses and New York City headquarters were sold to British bank Barclays. Some of Lehman’s U.S. businesses, including wealth management firm Neuberger-Berman, continue to operate as stand-alone entities under new ownership. And because of the company’s global reach, its bankruptcy proceedings are complex, ongoing, and have resulted in the closing of 80 of the bank’s smaller subsidiaries. more…

*Still too early to gauge the severity of swine flu
*As traumatic as SARS was in terms of its human impact, the markets scarcely reacted to it
*This time, the global economy and asset markets are more vulnerable than in 2003
*However, if this appears to be containable in a few months as SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) was, banks’ balance sheets are likely to dominate -market sentiment, rather than the flu
 
Much depends on the severity of this episode – and that is a great unknown. Both economic and market impacts are almost impossible to quantify at this stage because of the many unknowns about the magnitude/severity of the swine flu. It depends on how easily the virus is spread human-to-human, the ability to detect the virus early, the effectiveness of border controls, and the mortality rate. more…

HONG KONG (AP) — Asian stock markets recovered Wednesday as better-than-expected U.S. data gave investors hope of a turnaround in the world’s largest economy and helped offset their fears of a swine flu pandemic.

After two days of declines, most of the region’s major markets posted broad-based gains. Airline stocks, slammed in recent days amid worries about the disease’s toll on travel, rebounded sharply. The dollar strengthened against the yen, while oil prices were steady.

Investors were cheered after a closely watched measure of U.S. consumer confidence soared in April, suggesting Americans may be ready to spend again — a boon for export-driven Asian countries. An easing in the pace of home price declines also boosted sentiment. more…

The Yen has been the main story overnight as the currency has re-established its safe-haven status with the potential “swine flu” pandemic sending cautious investors to the sidelines. The fact that the health concerns are based in the Western hemisphere has heightened concerns as it could negatively impact the U.S. economy where the most stimulus has been enacted and is the expected source of growth to help stem the current global downturn.

Talking Points
• Japanese Yen: Finds Support On “Swine Flu” Fears
• Pound: Housing Markets Continues to Show Weakness
• Euro: Deflation Concerns Remain
• US Dollar: Durable Goods Orders On Tap

Dollar, Yen Find Support On “Swine Flu” Pandemic Fears, Adding To Concerns Over Bank Stress Tests

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